Wednesday, October 31, 2007

Surviving a recession

Having been only academically aware of the concept of recession, concerns of a coming recession finally succeeded in poking through the tissue paper walls surrounding the living space in my mind... and now I find these concerns muddying up my carpet and my couch. My lack of understanding regarding the dynamics of recession bring into focus for me the idea that I need direction. At such times my propensity to run-off at the mouth (fingers) offers an opportunity to 1) remove all doubt that I am a fool, and 2) hopefully provide a path to soldier through the gaining of a functional understanding... er, so here goes.

What is the tipping point for a recession?

What is the most prudent course for weathering a recession?



Thinking out loud, and mismatching pieces of the puzzle during the exploration...

If the fed lowers key interest rates, that's done to make debt more attractive to business, correct? (As well as to consumers who's paychecks come from said debt fueled businesses, in part. Thus providing ways and means to perpetuate a debt ecology.)

Because debt is now more attractive to folks in search of a loan but who wouldn't shakle themselves at the higher previous interest rate, they extend themselves--going (further) into debt.

On the other end of the ecology, investors who might otherwise use investment instruments tied more directly to debt given out at the previously higher interest rate now find themselves unhappy with the lower prospects for returns thus withdraw their money (or don't "re-up" once their debt related investments mature) and instead redeploy into stocks which while more risky offer the potential for now more compelling returns.

Recession happens when consumers of debt cannot be enticed into extending themselves, accurate?

The economy stalls during such periods--and that's the defining state that is "recession", correct?

As a consumer, is being in debt during a recession more or less attractive if the primary means by which recession is addressed from a policy standpoint is to reduce the key interest rates? Wouldn't at some point debt be made so attractive that no wo/man could resist? Assuming the pressures of such a scenario are absorbed elsewhere in the ecology, where exactly do they emerge?